ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK

                                EURUSD


we got as high as 1.1437 last week,The high point i though 1.1500 may be test and we should not rule that out.
I think that until we are below 1.1150 level the bulls will still be in control of the price action. as you can see 1.1380 the 88.7% fibonacci level has something to say an the price action
The formation of a spinning top suggests that mixed Euro Zone data and Friday’s unspectacular, yet not bad NFP are not providing any clear direction to traders. My longer-term base case for the EUR is below parity, but for now repatriation followed by a weak USD have been keeping the pair bid.  My approach for now is to wait, and to look for a confirmed break back below at least 1.1o before going short. Tactically, for short-term traders, if we push though 114.00 then the correct approach will be to buy. Of note is the comparative weakness of European stock markets.

  
                                    AUDUSD

We have 3 failures above 0.7700 and below 0.7474 sets up a really big move lower.
the RBA is expected to keep rates on hold this week, though in a overbought market any bearish rhetoric may cause a sell off. This is a possibility with the RBA likely unhappy with the AUD at these levels, preferring the pair to be trading at 65-70 cents. Watch for any mention of “a lower AUD seems both likely and necessary” in the rates announcement or an outside chance of a rate cut. Conversely if the RBA is hawkish or the market is brought up despite any jawboning, then it would be a strong sign that the bull trend is likely to continue. Also of note is the resumption of the downtrend in commodities last week.

                                                       NZDUSD

There was 2 failures at 0.6965 and there is also a double top measured move in play to 0.6834 and also we have seen formation of two indecisive candles.
 This weeks dairy auction may be important in deciding future direction. It is also important to note that immigration, construction and tourism are supporting the economy, despite the weak dairy sector. A buy stop above the high on a positive dairy auction may be a good approach, otherwise wait for a confirmed move back below 0.6550 before looking to sell the pair.  Positions should be kept small as we need to remember this move is more based on US weakness more than NZD strength, and the RBNZ is in a rate cutting cycle.