Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 23 May 2016

In normal trading circumstances i would like to see 38%  retracement to enter short in the direction of the recent trend. at the moment the pair is struggling to raise above 1.1230 after the FOMC minutes and the continue demand for Dollar.
I would lookinhg for a break below 1.1175 which is below 0.0% fib level would open the dooe for the downside.
taking 1.1000 as the next support level.

 Lasts weeks BREXIT poll results came out in favor of the UK staying in the European Union. Economic data also improved. I like to have a little bit of long GBP pound exposure heading into the June vote as my base case remains the UK stays,
There is an Head and Shoulder pattern on daily chat with neckline concide with 50% fib level and a trend line capping the price. i would be waiting for Trendline bounce or break to buy or sell GBPUSD

Sell AUD/USD. Trend –  MT is bear normal. The AUDUSD continued to sell off on the back of divergence in monetary policy between the US and Australia. From a macro point of view, if anything develops out of China because of this article, then it will pressure the Aussie. Note my base case is that a slow down in China remains a major headwind for AUD and we eventually see the pair back down around 60 cents (though it may take a stock bear market to achieve the target).
and also techically the head and shoulder pattern play out with a pair of Dragonfly doji on thursday.
i would wait for it to move a little bit higher so that i can enter shot and play along the head and shoulders move.





 This is the analysis of the rest of the pairs for the week

Sell NZD/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. There are a variety of conflicting forces in play with the NZD. On the one hand we have a central bank in an easing cycle and weak dairy prices. On the other we have capital inflows (as seen by the hot stock market) and record net migration and booming tourism. NZD also provides the opportunity earn yield as it’s interest rate remains much (in this world of zero rates) higher than many of it’s peers. Overall I like to sell the kiwi after the recent run-up but I will maintain a healthy dose of caution until the stock market starts to weaken. 

Buy USD/CHF. Trend – MT is bull normal. The initial 0.98 target discussed here was met and pair has now broken out into a bull MT. The run-up has been quite strong so a pull-back is expected buy on a dip. 

Buy USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. We now have a divergence between oil and the CAD with Oil remaining in a bull MT. I like to buy CAD here but also using a more conservative approach as I would have expected a greater period of consolidation after the previous bear especially considering that oil continues to move higher. Also, watch out for the Bank of Canada this week. They have been reasonably positive so a shift to a more dovish stance could surprise the market. 

Sell EUR/GBP. Breakout – MT is bear normal. The break of the 4 hour MT mentioned here last week saw us quickly take out the .7750 level and we are now in a bear MT. Look to sell.

Crosses 

• Sell AUD/JPY.  Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue to sell but with caution as we may be turning sideways. Possibly wait for a break of .7850.
• Wait  NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Still looking for a below 72.50 to initiate shorts, though wary of BOJ.
• Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Wait EUR/JPY.  – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Sell CHF/JPY. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Buy GBP/NZD. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy, but possibly wait for the price to bottom and reverse on one of the lower timeframes.
• Wait EUR/NZD.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
• Sell AUD/NZD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Buy EUR/AUD.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Buy, but careful as we may well turn sideways here.
• Buy GBP/AUD. – MT is bull normal.  Buy but on a pull back only.
• Sell AUD/CAD. –  MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Wait GBP/CAD. –  MT is bull fast. Buy but on a pull back only in this MT.
• Wait EUR/CAD. –  MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
• Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait or now.
• Buy GBP/CHF. – MT is bull fast. We have had the break into a bull MT at the completion of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Look to buy for an eventual move back towards 1.5600. Wait to stalk an entry in this MT.
• Wait CAD/CHF.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
• Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
• Sell AUD/CHF.  – MT is bear normal. Sell but low conviction as turning sideways.